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More Sellers, Fewer Buyers—and Five Markets Defying the Trend
Miami’s surplus, Nassau’s shortage
In Miami, home sellers outnumbered buyers by 158.9% in September 2026. In Nassau County, New York, sellers were 28.6% fewer than buyers. One market offered house hunters abundant alternatives; the other left them competing for limited listings.
Miami represents the dominant pattern. Of the 50 major U.S. metros Redfin analyzed, 41 were buyer’s markets, a record in data stretching back to 2013. Just five favored sellers; four were balanced.
Redfin classifies markets as buyer-friendly when sellers exceed buyers by more than 10%, and seller-friendly when sellers fall more than 10% below buyers. Its seasonally adjusted estimates use Redfin and listing-service data.
Buyers retreat while listings accumulate
Nationally, approximately 1.51 million sellers faced 929,000 buyers in September—a 62.6% seller surplus, the widest gap in Redfin’s records.
The two sides moved in opposite directions. Buyer numbers fell 2.4% from August to a record low; seller numbers rose 1.2% to their highest since March 2020.
High housing costs and economic uncertainty have discouraged buyers. Sellers, meanwhile, include homeowners tired of waiting for better conditions and those moving for jobs, family changes or retirement. Unsold homes linger, while fresh listings enlarge the pool.
Homeowners with substantial equity and no pressing need to move can withhold or withdraw their listings.
Construction divides the markets
The 13 metros where sellers more than doubled buyers were all in the Sun Belt. Miami led, followed by Nashville and Houston.
Robust homebuilding has added supply even as demand cooled, especially in Texas and Florida. Florida buyers also face rising insurance and homeowners association costs: more homes to choose from, but more expenses to cover.
The seller-friendly markets present a different constraint. Limited construction has kept supply tight, particularly around New York’s major job center. Alongside Nassau County, the five included Newark, Montgomery County in Pennsylvania, Milwaukee and San Francisco.
San Francisco follows another route: AI-generated wealth has helped heat up sales and buyer competition.
Negotiating power is not affordability
Buyers with sufficient budgets and job security can be selective, negotiate and walk away from unsuitable deals in much of the country. Many others cannot afford to participate—the very absence that strengthens remaining buyers’ position.
Nor has greater choice necessarily meant falling prices. In August, home-sale prices rose an average of 6.4% year over year across the five seller’s markets, compared with 1% across buyer’s markets. Competition was supporting faster increases in one group; abundant listings had slowed, but not reversed, average price growth in the other.
Fannie Mae’s 2027 Mortgage Outlook Leaves Little Room for Relief
A higher rate—and no retreat in sight
Fannie Mae now expects the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to stay at 7.5% throughout 2027, sharply revising its earlier forecast of 6.7%. The prospect of cheaper borrowing has not merely been postponed by a quarter. It has disappeared from the mortgage giant’s outlook for next year.
Its October 2026 housing forecast also raises the expected fourth-quarter rate to 7.4%, from 6.8%.
Even that reset comes with a timing problem. Fannie Mae based its assumptions on market levels as of September 30. By October 13, the average 30-year fixed rate had reached 7.46%. Bond yields then rose after September’s annual inflation reading came in hotter than expected at 3.7%.
The pressure extends beyond the Fed
The Federal Reserve contributed to the squeeze on September 16, raising its benchmark rate by a quarter point to 3.75%–4%—its first increase in more than three years. Officials have penciled in another hike this year, with their next meeting scheduled for October 27–28.
But treating mortgage rates as simply a Fed story misses the longer-term pressure.
Mortgage rates loosely follow the 10-year Treasury yield, which has climbed amid higher oil prices and concern about the global economy. Mortgage Bankers Association chief economist Mike Fratantoni points to two forces operating together: inflation pushing central banks toward higher short-term rates, and large deficits and debt prompting bond investors to demand higher long-term yields.
How bad could it get? Cotality chief economist Selma Hepp has raised the possibility of 9% mortgage rates—but explicitly as a severe scenario, not her base case. That would involve Treasury yields reaching 6% or 7%, triggered by several major disruptions.
Refinancing takes the hit
Fannie Mae expects single-family mortgage originations to fall roughly 11%, from $2.09 trillion in 2026 to $1.87 trillion in 2027. Purchase lending holds near $1.43 trillion.
The damage is concentrated elsewhere: refinancing is projected to shrink from $655 billion to $430 billion, roughly a third.
Nor does slower house-price growth promise an obvious escape. Fannie Mae forecasts prices rising just 0.6% next year, versus 2.7% in 2026—not falling. Mortgage applications have already declined for seven consecutive weeks, while Zillow’s September report showed buyers retreating as affordability worsened.
For brokers, purchase business becomes the mainstay. The refinancing rebound that might have replenished their pipelines is no longer in the numbers.
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Turn Instagram Listing Views Into Phone Calls
Build the path before posting
Give viewers a clear route from a listing video to a conversation with an agent. Robert Cedeno’s team uses multiple caption calls to action, question-led DMs and a firm limit on messaging before asking for a phone number.
First, keep the audience clear. Cedeno separates agent-facing tips and recruiting content from consumer home tours, with different tour accounts for the Inland Empire and L.A. County. His reasoning: consumers shouldn’t have to sort through agent content—or see themselves discussed as “leads.”
Offer four ways to respond
Cedeno puts four calls to action in each listing caption. Use their different strengths to decide what to track:
Comment a keyword: Generates the most engagement for his team and triggers an automated DM.
Text a keyword: Produces the most phone numbers and CRM contacts, with an automated text reply.
Search homes through the bio link: Provides a website option, though Cedeno rates its performance as only “okay.”
Book a 15-minute call through the bio link: Delivers three to five bookings monthly, which he says convert at around 40%.
Include your phone number in the caption. Cedeno cross-posts videos to Facebook, where viewers sometimes call directly rather than comment or text.
Make the first DM invite a reply
Don’t let the automated response become a dead end. Cedeno’s team sends basic property information—price, size, bedroom count and bathroom count—rather than immediately supplying the address or a property website link. He deliberately leaves some details for further conversation.
End every DM with a question. His team uses prompts such as “Are you looking for a home in this area?” and “Would you like to schedule a showing?” Keep the language natural rather than overly polished.
For a button-based automation, branch according to interest. “Yes, looking for something like this” leads to a request for a good number to call. “Need something else” leads to a question about price range. Once someone replies, a virtual assistant takes over.
Move the conversation to the phone
After three to five messages of back-and-forth, Cedeno’s VAs ask for a phone number—not an email address. If the exchange continues, they explain that a call would be easier and ask directly: “What’s a good phone number?”
Don’t confuse responding to interest with messaging every new follower. Cedeno stopped automated welcome DMs after seeing people unfollow; his lead flow allowed him to let newcomers watch first.
Once the number arrives, hand it to the assigned agent to make the call.
🧰 IN THE TOOLBOX
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Perspective provides mobile-friendly funnels for collecting contact details and qualifying information from prospective buyers and sellers. Forms can include questions that help determine what kind of follow-up is appropriate.
Some links may be affiliate links, which means Market Minds may earn a commission at no extra cost to you.
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TL;DR (Too Long; Didn’t Read)
U.S. home sellers outnumbered buyers by 62.6% in September, the largest gap on record, with 41 of 50 major metros favoring buyers. But conditions vary sharply: Miami has a huge surplus of sellers, while Nassau County remains competitive, and greater negotiating power hasn't necessarily brought lower prices. Meanwhile, Fannie Mae now expects 30-year mortgage rates to average 7.5% throughout 2027, up from its previous 6.7% forecast. Persistent inflation and bond-market pressures are limiting prospects for relief, while refinance volume is projected to fall by roughly a third. For agents looking to turn social media attention into business, one team's approach offers a practical lesson: use multiple calls to action on listing videos, start conversations through question-led DMs, and ask for a phone number after three to five exchanges to move interested prospects toward a call.
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The content of Market Minds is provided for informational purposes only and reflects personal opinions based on sources believed to be reliable. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or professional advice. Each reader is solely responsible for their own decisions.