New: 🧠 Market Minds Issue #146

We appreciate each and every one of you for taking the time to read Market Minds. Buckle up and enjoy the free value, and you won’t want to miss… a Florida home where the bedroom count might have you saying a few prayers

New-home sales fell 10.5% in July from June and 6.3% from a year earlier, dropping to an annualized 607,000 homes — the weakest pace since January.

Prices are moving in the direction buyers supposedly want. The median new home sold for $393,800, the lowest in five years. Yet demand remains soft.

The reason is fairly simple: A cheaper house financed with an expensive mortgage can still produce an unaffordable monthly payment.

Builders are responding with more than incentives and price cuts. They’re increasingly building smaller, less expensive homes around what households can actually finance.

That’s a subtle but important shift. Instead of assuming buyers will eventually stretch to meet the product, builders are changing the product to meet the buyer.

Unfortunately, the economics are moving the other way. Tariffs and labor shortages are adding costs while builders are trying to lower selling prices. Housing starts are falling, suggesting there are limits to how far this adjustment can go.

The upside of weak demand is more choice. New-home inventory rose to 9.6 months of supply in July, and total housing supply reached its highest level since 2014.

There’s also an unusual gap opening up: The median new home is now $40,300 cheaper than the median existing home, the widest difference since 1999.

So buyers have more inventory, lower new-home prices and potentially more negotiating power. Builders, meanwhile, have more homes they need to sell.

It looks increasingly like a buyer’s market. The detail is that many of the buyers are still priced out.

Only 17% of Americans give real estate agents high marks for honesty and ethics. Nurses score 75%, doctors 57%, pharmacists 53%.

But the more interesting number may be 56%: the share who rate agents simply “average.” Another 26% put them in the low or very-low category. This isn’t universal distrust so much as a profession struggling to demonstrate its value.

Part of the problem comes from how agents get paid. Agents are supposed to advise clients on one of the biggest financial decisions of their lives. They also generally get paid when the transaction happens.

So every recommendation comes with an awkward footnote: Is this what’s best for me, or what gets you paid?

The 2024 commission settlement changed industry practices and was meant to increase competition and transparency. Commission rates initially fell to 4.96%, then reportedly climbed back to 5.39% in 2025. Rules can change quickly. Incentives — and perceptions — are harder.

There’s another mismatch: becoming an agent can require relatively limited preparation, while doing the job well requires substantial expertise.

Experienced agents worry that television and social media have made the profession look like a fast route to large commissions: get the license, find the mansion, sell the mansion, buy nicer sunglasses. Actual real estate involves contracts, negotiation, market knowledge, continuing education, and sometimes advising a client not to make the deal.

That last part matters.

The clearest way to build credibility may also be the most expensive: give advice that occasionally kills your commission.

Tell the seller to wait. Tell the buyer to walk away. Explain exactly how you’re paid before anyone asks. Make the incentive visible instead of pretending it isn’t there.

Meanwhile, AI and social platforms are changing how consumers find agents. A strong digital presence can increasingly determine who gets considered. But being discoverable isn’t the same as being trusted.

The industry can improve training, transparency, and technology. The harder question is whether consumers will see enough behavior that contradicts the stereotype.

At 17%, they apparently haven’t yet.

You don't have to scroll every AI thread, track every new tool, or watch every demo. 

The Rundown AI breaks it all down for you — the latest AI news, tools, and tutorials in one free 5-minute email every morning. 

Trusted by 2M+ professionals at Apple, Google, and NASA.

Sign up to start learning.

An expired listing is a home that failed to sell before the listing agreement ended. For agents, that creates a useful kind of lead: the seller has already demonstrated intent, but may now be frustrated, skeptical, or tired of real estate promises.

The first conversation should focus on understanding why the home didn’t sell.

Start with MLS alerts for expired, canceled, and withdrawn listings. Confirm ownership through public records and use brokerage-approved tools to verify contact information.

Before reaching out, check that the property is not actively or exclusively listed elsewhere. Then review Do Not Call rules, TCPA requirements, state law, MLS rules, and brokerage policy. A phone number is data. It is not consent.

Review the original price, reductions, days on market, photos, staging, description, showing access, competing listings, and recent sales.

Most failures tend to involve some combination of pricing, presentation, weak marketing, limited access, poor communication, or a changing market. Prepare two or three specific observations before contacting the owner.

That preparation is the difference between “I can sell your house” and “Here’s what I think limited buyer response.”

A strong opening is simple:

“Are you still hoping to sell, or have your plans changed?”

If the answer is yes, ask: “What do you think kept the home from selling?” For a seller overwhelmed by calls: “Are you still open to selling if you had a clearer plan this time?”

Then listen. Motivation, timeline, frustration, and expectations matter more than your résumé.

Phone calls are best for conversation. Voicemail should offer one specific reason to call back. A compliant text should ask one easy question. Email or direct mail can briefly show what you noticed and offer a relisting review.

If the seller is not ready, follow up rather than repeating the pitch. Test mid-morning versus late-afternoon calling blocks where permitted and track which produces conversations and appointments in your market.

Do not attack the previous agent or assume price was the only problem. Show what you would change: pricing, presentation, marketing, showing access, buyer feedback, and communication.

A useful close is: “I’d like to show you the pricing position, marketing adjustments, and buyer feedback strategy I’d use. Would [time] or [time] work for a 20-minute review?”

The script gets you into the conversation. The research and the relisting plan are what make the conversation worth having.

Three tools built to help with different parts of the job, from running deal numbers to capturing leads and keeping your marketing moving.

Working with investor clients? DealCheck helps you quickly run the numbers on rentals, flips and investment properties before deciding whether a deal deserves a closer look.

Analyze a deal →

Sending prospects to a generic landing page doesn’t tell you much. Perspective lets you build mobile-first funnels that capture and qualify buyer and seller leads from your marketing.

Build a lead funnel →

Staying visible shouldn’t mean creating real estate content from scratch every week. Coffee & Contracts gives agents ready-to-use social content, captions, templates and marketing materials.

Explore Coffee & Contracts →

Some links may be affiliate links, which means Market Minds may earn a commission at no extra cost to you.

Pioneer, the summit where CX leaders redefine what’s possible, is on October 7th.

Join leaders from Fin, Anthropic, Clay, and Kalshi for an insightful conversation on the state of AI transformation.

You’ll discover how some of the most innovative minds in CX have transformed their organizations, learn how they think about CX, and hear how they're planning for what's next.

Join the conversation in San Francisco, or tune in virtually.

Reserve your spot

For $329K, you can buy this 2,925-square-foot former church in Pinetta, Florida — complete with 0 bedrooms, 5 bathrooms, and plenty of room for a little divine intervention.

The listing says all it needs is “a little imagination” to become a unique home. We’d say maybe a contractor too.

Check it out👇

New-home prices are at a five-year low and inventory has climbed to 9.6 months of supply, but buyers still aren’t moving: high mortgage costs are keeping monthly payments out of reach, pushing builders toward smaller, cheaper homes even as tariffs and labor shortages squeeze construction economics. Meanwhile, real estate agents face a credibility problem, with only 17% of Americans rating their honesty and ethics highly; greater transparency around commissions helps, but trust is more likely to come from advice that clearly puts the client ahead of closing the deal. For agents pursuing expired listings, preparation matters more than the perfect script: verify the lead and outreach rules, diagnose why the property failed to sell, open by asking about the seller’s plans, and arrive with specific pricing, marketing, and communication changes rather than another generic sales pitch.

Have a great weekend - we’ll see you next Saturday.

Cheers 🍻

-Market Minds Team

The content of Market Minds is provided for informational purposes only and reflects personal opinions based on sources believed to be reliable. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or professional advice. Each reader is solely responsible for their own decisions.