New: 🧠 Market Minds Issue #101

We appreciate each and every one of you for taking the time to read Market Minds. Buckle up and enjoy the free value, and you won’t want to miss… The NYC townhouse where bathrooms outnumber bedrooms.

A whisper, not a roar,  that’s what the next decade of housing will sound like. Moody’s Analytics just dropped its housing forecast through 2035, and it reads more like a sleep study than an investor playbook: 23.5% nominal price growth over 10 years. Once you strip out inflation, you’re looking at zero. Flat. Nada.

But don’t mistake calm for comfort. This is a market in detox, sweating out the excesses of the pandemic boom, the rate shock hangover, and years of affordability erosion. If you’ve been betting on appreciation to carry your portfolio or your pitch deck, it’s time to find a new religion.

Forget the sugar highs of 2020–2022. Moody’s model, led by Chief Economist Mark Zandi, projects annual gains so modest they could pass for typos:

2026: +0.48%
2027: +1.35%
2028: +2.39%
…
2035: +2.08%

That’s not appreciation. That’s indexing. And it’s a calculated strategy, Zandi calls this decade-long flatline the “healthiest path forward,” a necessary pause for wages to catch up to prices. He’s not forecasting a boom or bust. He’s prescribing a sedative.

While the national market drifts sideways, local skirmishes will define the next wave of winners and losers. Moody’s hints at regional divergence:

The takeaway: the one-size-fits-all national narrative is dead. Strategy now lives in ZIP codes and zoning meetings.

This isn’t just a housing story, it’s a macro one. Moody’s cites:

Zandi thinks we’re in the most painful stretch of the correction right now, the next 6–9 months, and that the recovery, such as it is, will be more of a stagger than a sprint.

Real estate, in the decade ahead, is not a story of acceleration. It’s a story of absorption. This market isn’t going to reward leverage or luck. It will reward patience, capital discipline, and strategic reinvention.

The forecast isn’t exciting. That’s the point. It’s a return to fundamentals. To yield over YOLO. To cash flow over comps.

Forget “location, location, location.” The new mantra?

“Yield, zoning, patience.”

That’s the tell of this fall: two hands on the wheel, fighting for control. In Albuquerque, average prices around $420K (median ≈$370K) still pull entry buyers into bidding mode. In Greater Boston, inventory is up vs. the last five years, yet clean, right-priced listings still move. In Sacramento, a home comped at $475K priced at $469K drew four offers in ten days. Same country, different planets. Your edge is to stop arguing “who’s in charge” and start playing the segment you’re in.

Sellers who expect 48-hour bidding wars and waived inspections are time-traveling. The market still rewards right-priced, turnkey listings, but it now punishes reach pricing. Overprice and you don’t “test”; you brand the home as stale and sell 10% under what was achievable. Get them “down to earth” on three points: pre-list repairs, inspection reality, and pricing inside the comps to manufacture competition instead of waiting for it.

Leverage isn’t “up” or “down,” it’s ZIP- and price-band specific. Entry tier and A+ neighborhoods? Bid near ask, prioritize speed, and trim the punch list. Upper tier or homes 21+ days on market? Ask for concessions, credits, or rate buydowns, and negotiate repairs with teeth. The moment you treat a tight micro-market like national headlines, you overpay or miss.

Five years of waived due diligence taught bad habits. Today, reasonable repair requests clear more often. Use pre-inspections to keep A-tier listings “deal-proof,” or, on the buy side, target properties with creeping DOM to surface larger repairs as leverage for credits instead of death-by-work-order.

Spec and new-build is the release valve: incentives, rate buydowns, and lower price points are drawing sidelined buyers back. Track builder promos weekly; they set the ceiling on what a resale can achieve and the floor on what a buyer should accept.

You’re not selling in 2021 anymore. That was a fever dream of FOMO-fueled bidding wars and buyers offering kidneys for the privilege of overpaying. Today’s market has sobered up. There’s more inventory, more leverage for buyers, and less tolerance for wishful thinking. Sellers clinging to that 2021 fantasy are learning a hard truth: buyers have moved on. They’ve seen too many price cuts to take your aspirational list price seriously.

We’re seeing a spike in delistings. Why? Not because homes are haunted or on fault lines, because they're overpriced. A recent survey shows 54% of agents report more homes being pulled off the market. Why? Sellers aren’t getting offers that meet their “feel good” number. And when a price drop finally comes? It's often too little, too late. The damage is done. The listing looks stale, and buyers smell blood.

Here’s the real cost: it’s not just that your house doesn’t sell. It’s that your next move gets stuck in the mud. That job relocation, that school district upgrade, that downsizing to cash out equity, all frozen because you got greedy on price. Sellers aren’t just risking money. They’re risking momentum.

Yes, prices are softer. But the five-year run-up in home values? That’s your buffer. According to FHFA data, home prices are still up 54% over the last five years. You’ve won. Now take the win. Waiting for a higher offer isn’t strategy, it’s ego.

Homes priced right are still moving. In the right range and condition, they’re getting action, sometimes even multiple offers. What makes the difference? Agents who ditch the fluff and tell sellers the truth. If your pricing conversation doesn’t feel slightly uncomfortable, you’re probably doing it wrong.

Talking about unbalance… Do you REALLY need more bathrooms than bedrooms in NYC? This $19.95M West Chelsea townhouse at 462 W 23rd St says yes, with 8 baths for 5 beds and enough marble, brass, and mood lighting to host an Architectural Digest afterparty. It’s dramatic, decadent, and just the right amount of absurd.

Check it out👇

Control isn’t loud… it’s calibrated.

Mark Zandi called for a decade-long flatline in home prices, describing zero real growth as “the healthiest path forward.”

By choosing moderation over momentum, Moody’s reframed stagnation as strategy, trading boom-bust cycles for wage alignment and market rehab.

Sometimes the strongest move is taking your foot off the gas.

Moody’s real estate forecast reads less like a market outlook and more like an Ambien ad. With inflation-adjusted home prices projected to flatline over the next decade, we’re entering a real estate era that rewards not risk but restraint. Forget flipping, the new ROI is Return On Inertia. National trends are a snoozefest, but regional battles? Those will be spicy. This is no longer a “location, location, location” game, it’s “yield, zoning, patience.”

Have a great weekend - we’ll see you next Saturday.

Cheers 🍻

-Market Minds Team

The content of Market Minds is provided for informational purposes only and reflects personal opinions based on sources believed to be reliable. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or professional advice. Each reader is solely responsible for their own decisions.