New: 🧠 Market Minds Issue #097

We appreciate each and every one of you for taking the time to read Market Minds. Buckle up and enjoy the free value, and you won’t want to miss… the piece of land with a million-dollar price tag and just an Airstream to show for it.

Mortgage Mayhem: The Calm Before the Spike

Refi Fever Hits a 3-Year High

This past week saw the biggest jump in mortgage applications since 2021, driven almost entirely by one thing: a refinancing stampede. Refi demand surged 58% week-over-week and is now up 70% year-over-year. That’s not just a blip, it’s the kind of move that forces you to zoom all the way back to 2022 just to find a comparable level. Homeowners, especially those holding larger loans, moved fast and first, as evidenced by the highest average refi loan size in the 35-year history of the Mortgage Bankers Association survey.

Jumbo Games: When Big Borrowers Blink First

That spike wasn’t evenly distributed. The action is in the jumbo market: those with deeper pockets and more equity on the line aren’t just watching the market; they’re capitalizing on it. This isn’t about Mom and Pop shaving a few points off their FHA. It’s institutional, it’s tactical, and it’s fast. If you’re not tracking jumbo borrower behavior, you’re not tracking the front of the curve.

Purchase Activity Inches Higher, But Still Matters

While the 3% increase in purchase applications might seem pedestrian next to the refi explosion, it’s not irrelevant. That number now sits near the highest level since early 2023. Which tells us that savvy buyers are watching rate movements and jumping in the second there’s daylight, however brief it may be.

Rate Whiplash Incoming

Just as the market caught its breath, the Fed did what the Fed does: pulled the rug. Mortgage rates reversed course sharply midweek following the Fed announcement, and then again after fresh economic data. Translation? This refi surge may turn out to be a sprint through a briefly open door. Anyone who hesitated may be too late.

Numbers Worth Knowing

• 30yr fixed: 6.39% (down from 6.49%)

• Refi share of total apps: 59.8%

• ARM share: 12.9% (watch this, risk is creeping back in)

• Overall mortgage app volume: +29.7% (2nd biggest jump since 2022)

10 Fall Top Tips

This Isn’t a Slow Season. It’s a Market Correction… and That’s Your Advantage.

The fall selling season is here, and while the leaves are turning, so is the leverage, from sellers chasing peak prices to buyers hunting value. This shift is no anomaly. It’s gravity. The market has crested. Sellers who price like it’s Q2 are finding themselves ghosted. The ones who move fast,  with the right tactics, are the ones still getting contracts signed.

Below are your marching orders for fall. Not the Pinterest fluff. These are levers that actually move listings in a market where attention is currency.

Add Down Payment Assistance to the Narrative

Buried in the mortgage sections of Realtor.com and Zillow is the most underused asset in real estate right now: free money. DownPaymentResource.com is piping in state and local programs, and yet, most listings are silent on it. If you’re not leading with that data in the MLS description, on flyers, and during open house spiels, you’re leaving affordability (and urgency) on the table. One Austin listing qualified for 36 programs totaling $20,220 in assistance. That’s not a feature, that’s a headline.

Price Drops Without Photo Drops Are Wasted

Every price drop should be a re-launch. Think: new hero image, twilight retouching, fresh drone flyover, and virtual twilight shots using BoxBrownie. Reintroduce the property like it’s new. If your listing photos still scream “May,” then you’ve lost the fall buyer mentally still scrolling in September.

Staging Is Evolving… So Should You

Buyers don’t want imagination. They want vision. Virtual staging tools (BoxBrownie, Matterport, ROOOM) now offer AI-powered immersive AR that lets buyers not just see a room, but feel it as theirs. Seasonal customization (Halloween, Thanksgiving, etc.) is a killer differentiator that turns digital shoppers into showings.

Sell the Yard Like It’s a Feature Film

Summer foliage is your last-remaining visual asset before everything goes gray. Capture it now, even for listings going live in winter. Use apps like iScape for augmented landscaping edits that suggest potential, not just preservation.

Leverage Fall’s Holiday Trifecta

Three holidays in four weeks, Halloween, Veteran’s Day, Thanksgiving, aren’t just opportunities for “community engagement.” They’re magnets for foot traffic and emotional hooks. Costume contests, haunted houses, pie giveaways… they work. Why? Because they create moments, and moments convert buyers.

Spac.io: From Open House to Intelligence Hub

Most agents are collecting open house names. You should be collecting data. Spac.io builds out buyer profiles with embedded tours, analytics, and post-visit automation. It's not a sign-in sheet. It’s a CRM disguised as a clipboard.

Appeal Property Taxes… and Win Loyalty

If local values are retreating, your clients' tax assessments may be based on ghosts of peak pricing. Help them appeal, give them CMAs, valuations from Redfin, Chase, Zillow. It’s not your job, but it’s your edge. They’ll never forget who saved them $2,000+ next April.

Real Insight: The Future Is Virtually Staged and AI-Enhanced

Forget the cliché of “location, location, location.” The new differentiator is presentation velocity. Your ability to respond to seasonality, shift narratives, and repackage with AI-driven visuals will determine whether listings sit or sell. The tech stack that was optional in 2022 is essential now.

This Isn’t a Market for the Passive

Fall 2025 is not forgiving. It’s an inflection point. Price chops alone won’t cut it. Buyers want more value and more vision. This season favors agents and investors who treat real estate not like a transaction, but like a campaign. So don’t just list it. Launch it. And launch again if needed. The ones who do are still closing.

The Market Blinks

A Northeast Shockwave

New-home sales just notched their highest pace since January 2022, with August sales leaping 20.5% from July. The Northeast was the epicenter—up 72.2% in a single month. That’s not demand, that’s adrenaline. When one region moves like that, it’s less about demographics and more about psychology. Buyers in the Northeast didn’t suddenly materialize; they were already there, waiting, and a dip in rates or a shift in sentiment pulled the trigger. Watch this region as the early indicator, its volatility often foreshadows national pivots.

The Supply Mirage

Inventory tells a different story. On paper, new-home supply dropped to a 7.4-month level, down from 9 months in July. But the headline hides a bigger truth: the growth in supply is stalling. August inventory was still 21% below pre-pandemic norms. The rebound was slowing in June (15% below average), worse in July (17%), and now deteriorating again. That’s not progress, it’s regression. Builders are pulling back even as demand spikes, a classic recipe for price stickiness.

The Price Ceiling Is Rising

The median new-home sales price rose to $413,500, up from $395,100 in July. That’s not just inflationary drift. It’s buyers capitulating, accepting higher prices as the cost of re-entering the market. Builders who pivot to smaller, more affordable homes will capture outsized share, but make no mistake: the “affordable” segment is being redefined upward every quarter.

The West Coast Warning

Not every region is playing ball. Annualized sales fell 5.7% in the West compared to last year. This isn’t a shrug; it’s a signal. Affordability in the West has hit a wall that not even falling mortgage rates can bulldoze. The contrast with the Northeast’s 40.9% year-over-year gain underscores a bifurcated market. The narrative of a “national recovery” doesn’t hold.

The Delicate Balance

This surge in August could be a head fake. Lower mortgage rates are coaxing buyers back in, but the “rate lock-in” effect and slowing inventory growth act as drag forces. Economists are already hinting this might be a one-month blip. But here’s the rub: even if sales plateau, prices may not soften. Builders are too cautious, existing-home supply is too sticky, and buyers have recalibrated their expectations.

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TL;DR (Too Long; Didn’t Read)

Mortgage activity just went from snooze to stampede. Refi applications are surging like it’s 2021, driven by jumbo borrowers with the agility, and incentive, to lock in fleeting rate dips. That 58% jump in refis? It’s not noise. It’s a signal: money is moving, and the fast are eating the slow.

The key takeaway? This isn’t a market of trends, it’s a market of windows. And they don’t open gently; they slam. Rate watchers who blinked this week are already paying more. The rule right now: Move fast. Then stop. Then move faster.

Also, if you’re not watching ARM uptake climb back into double digits, you’re not watching the risk profile evolve. This isn’t your dad’s real estate cycle.

Have a great weekend - we’ll see you next Saturday.

Cheers 🍻

-Market Minds Team