New: đź§  Market Minds Issue #093

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Buyers are Circling…

Source: Redfin

Mortgage Rates Hit 10-Month Low

The 30-year sits at 6.58%, the cheapest money buyers have seen in nearly a year. The impact is real: monthly payments have dropped to their lowest point of 2025. Affordability is no longer falling off a cliff, and for the first time all year, buyers are inching back. Pending sales are up two months in a row.

The Market Is Split Between Action and Hesitation

Here’s the paradox: demand is rising, but confidence is fractured. Some buyers are pulling the trigger today. Others are sitting in the dugout, waiting for the Fed’s September cut to make mortgages “even cheaper.” The problem? That rate cut is already baked into the market. Waiting means you’re betting against reality. The smart move is understanding that the real “discount” isn’t in the rate, it’s in seller psychology. Right now, sellers are still negotiating. That window narrows fast if rates fall further.

Inventory Is Stirring

New listings just posted their biggest increase in over two months. It’s a modest 1.9% year-over-year, but direction matters. Sellers who sat out the first half of the year are creeping back, testing the waters while buyers are still tentative. If you’ve been tracking this market, you know the combination of rising supply and a buyer pool that’s not yet fully committed creates a rare setup: leverage.

What This Moment Really Is

This isn’t 2021 where bidding wars erupt over drywall and a granite island. This is a market in transition, and transition is where money is made. When conditions shift from paralysis to momentum, those who act in the gray zone capture the upside. Everyone else wakes up one morning to headlines about “competition heating up” and wonders why they’re paying $50,000 more for the same house.

The Mirage of Rising Inventory

Source: KCM

Why 2025 Is Not 2008

Yes, new home inventory just hit its highest level since the crash. That stat is making the rounds online because fear sells. But here’s the real story: new builds are only half the equation. When you factor in existing homes, total inventory today is nowhere near the surplus we saw before the market unraveled in 2008. Back then, there was a genuine glut. Today, there’s balance with pockets of scarcity.

Fifteen Years of Underbuilding Still Matters

What most headlines ignore is the long hangover from 2008. Builders stopped swinging hammers for a decade and a half, leaving the country short millions of homes. That deficit hasn’t disappeared just because we’re seeing more new builds now. Even with the recent uptick, experts estimate it will take roughly 7.5 years of sustained building just to close the gap. Think about that: the “record” inventory people are panicking about is actually a small dent in a massive shortage.

The Market Is Uneven, and That’s the Opportunity

Some metros are showing more slack, others remain brutally tight. The nuance is where the edge lies. In certain cities, rising new construction is giving buyers a rare chance to negotiate. In others, the shortage is still the story, keeping upward pressure on prices. Both are signals. Both create windows, depending on which side of the table you’re sitting on.

What the Noise Misses

The narrative of “highest inventory since 2008” misses the context: we’re not looking at a bubble, we’re looking at a slow correction to 15 years of underbuilding. The real risk isn’t oversupply, it’s misreading the moment. The last cycle was defined by excess; this one is defined by scarcity meeting cautious expansion.

The Coming War Over Listings

Source: REN

Private Listings as a Power Grab

The industry’s fault line is forming around private exclusives. Compass has already staked its strategy on controlling inventory, and the bigger players (Anywhere, eXp, Howard Hanna) are positioned to follow if market pressure tilts in that direction. The risk isn’t theoretical: if a company with Anywhere’s scale flips the switch, the market could fracture overnight, consolidating listings into the hands of a few giants.

Small Brokerages at Risk of Extinction

The open MLS system has been the great equalizer. Without it, smaller firms become irrelevant: an agent limited to a third of the available market simply cannot compete. Brobeck’s warning is blunt: once the dominoes fall, the playing field tilts permanently. Think of it less as gradual change and more as a World War I mobilization. The first big firm moves, and the rest must follow or die.

A Weakened NAR Can’t Hold the Line

Historically, the National Association of Realtors acted as a referee, enforcing open market access through the MLS. But its influence has eroded. With less discipline at the center, power naturally drifts to those with the deepest pockets and largest networks. Once concentrated, that power rarely disperses back. Markets institutionalize control. Transparency doesn’t reassert itself without a fight.

Zillow as Unlikely Counterweight

Here’s the twist: Zillow may be the only player with enough leverage to resist this wave. By banning certain off-MLS listings, it’s positioning itself as the guardian of an open market. Critics say Zillow is acting in self-interest, since its lifeblood is MLS data. Brobeck’s response: so what? Intentions don’t matter; impact does. If Zillow’s opposition slows consolidation, it buys the rest of the industry time.

The Real Risk

This isn’t about whether private listings are “good” or “bad.” It’s about what happens when inventory control shifts from the marketplace to the boardrooms of six mega-brokerages. Transparency vanishes, small firms suffocate, and consumers get a curated version of housing availability. Once that concentration hardens, it’s nearly impossible to unwind.

Normal at First Glance

Source: Zillow

This Bovina Center, NY home listed at $14M might seem like a bargain when you see how many acres it comes with…

Check it out👇

TL;DR (Too Long; Didn’t Read)

Mortgage rates have dropped to a 10-month low at 6.58%, pulling some buyers back into the market and boosting pending sales for two straight months. But confidence is fractured: while some buyers act now, others wait for a Fed cut that’s already priced in—missing the real discount, which lies in seller flexibility before momentum shifts. Inventory is creeping higher, but fears of a 2008-style glut are misplaced; 15 years of underbuilding leave the market structurally short on homes despite recent upticks. Meanwhile, the industry faces a brewing power struggle over private listings, with mega-brokerages pushing toward consolidation, smaller firms at risk of extinction, and Zillow emerging as an unlikely defender of open access.

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-Market Minds Team