New: 🧠 Market Minds Issue #084

We appreciate each and every one of you for taking the time to read Market Minds. Buckle up and enjoy the free value, and you won’t want to miss the house correctly referred to “the book house”…

Indecision as Policy

Uncertainty Reigns Supreme

The Federal Reserve has officially entered its Hamlet era: to cut or not to cut? That is no longer just the question, it’s also the policy. At its June meeting, the Fed left rates unchanged, but the real story isn’t the decision. It’s the dissonance. Of 19 officials, seven expect no cuts this year. Two forecast one cut. Eight are banking on two. And two still think we’ll see three. A single vote shift would’ve lowered the median projection from two to one cut. That’s how divided the room is.

No Conviction, No Cuts

Fed Chair Jerome Powell offered a masterclass in cautious non-commitment, admitting there’s “no high conviction” across the board. Translation: until the data forces their hand, rates are staying put. The risk of prematurely cutting, especially with inflation lingering and tariffs complicating the picture, has neutered any aggressive monetary moves. The new policy isn’t easing. It’s waiting.

Mortgage Rates: Frozen Assets

With no rate relief coming soon, mortgage rates are staying anchored at uncomfortable highs. Buyers on the sidelines will stay there, and investors seeking price compression might be disappointed. The Fed’s indecision has become your new market certainty.

Finally, a Market with Leverage

Sellers Are Folding First

It’s taken years, but the power dynamic has flipped. More than 20% of sellers are cutting prices, and inventory levels are now flirting with pre-pandemic norms. Homes are sitting longer—38 days on average this May, up from 32 a year ago—and the usual hotbeds of bidding wars are cooling into stale listings. Buyers aren’t biting at aspirational pricing, and sellers, some still stuck in 2021, are finally blinking.

The Psychology of Delay is Fading

Gone is the anxiety of 24-hour sale cycles. Today’s buyers are back to touring homes multiple times, bringing in inspectors, and actually having offers with contingencies taken seriously. What was once FOMO-driven panic is now discernment and patience. That’s a rare emotional edge. Use it.

Where the Cuts Are the Deepest

Markets like Phoenix, Denver, Tampa, and Austin are leading in markdowns, with nearly a third of listings seeing price cuts. Even strongholds like San Diego and Las Vegas are showing signs of capitulation. Builders, too, are slashing—37% are cutting prices and nearly two-thirds are offering buyer incentives. Not just discounts, but closing costs and perks, all in play now.

Inventory Alone Isn’t the Savior

More inventory is necessary, but not sufficient. Home sales remain depressed. Why? Mortgage rates. Despite the flood of listings, transaction volume is still flatlining because financing remains expensive. Sellers are cutting, but many buyers are calculating. Without a rate drop, volume won't surge. But the ones who do buy? They’re negotiating from strength we haven’t seen in years.

Be the Relationship Agent Who Wins in Q4

Silence Is Your Competitor

Summer is when most real estate pros disappear. The ones who don’t? They win the fall. When the inboxes get quieter and follow-up dries up, your presence, however small, lands 10 times harder. A handwritten note, a backyard ice cream social, even a DIY summer guide… those are no longer nice-to-haves. They’re standout plays in a business that’s increasingly saturated with automation.

Small Touches, Big Retention

Gratitude is the asset that compounds. Whether it’s a summer survival kit with a note that says “Thanks for trusting me,” or a surprise popsicle drop-off on a 95-degree day, these gestures aren’t about being clever. They’re about being remembered. And in a market where transaction volumes are tight, mindshare isn’t optional.

Be the Local Pulse, Not Just the Property Pitcher

Think beyond listings. A curated guide to neighborhood concerts or splash pad openings isn’t just filler—it’s you flexing your embeddedness in the community. It shows you’re more than a transaction handler. You’re someone people trust to be their connector long after the ink dries.

Referrals Don’t Come From Being Good. They Come From Being Present

This isn’t about mass mailers or CRM auto-drips. It’s about the person who still sends a card on a client’s home anniversary, who remembers a new baby, who checks in without pitching. Stay visible, stay thoughtful, and by fall, you won’t just have deal, you’ll have a pipeline that built itself while others were asleep.

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TL;DR (Too Long; Didn’t Read)

The Fed is paralyzed by indecision, keeping rates frozen while inflation and political risks linger—creating a market stuck in wait mode. Meanwhile, sellers across the country are blinking first, with price cuts, longer days on market, and aggressive builder incentives reshaping the negotiating table. Buyers now hold rare leverage, but high mortgage rates are still suppressing transaction volume. In this environment, quiet agents lose—those who stay visible with thoughtful, personal touches will own Q4.

Have a great weekend - we’ll see you next Saturday.

Cheers 🍻

-Market Minds Team