New: 🧠 Market Minds Issue #036

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Indicators Point to Potential Rate Cuts

Recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics has shown a slowdown in job growth, with significant revisions to previous months' job additions and a sluggish performance in June. This slowdown is influencing mortgage rates, which have begun to retreat after a spike following the June 27 presidential debate.

Key Points from the Job Market Report:

• Revised Job Growth: April and May saw a combined downward revision of 111,000 jobs.

• June's Job Addition: An estimated 206,000 nonfarm jobs were added, slightly above expectations but bolstered significantly by government hiring.

• Unemployment and Wages: The unemployment rate increased to 4.1%, and wage gains decelerated to 3.9% on a 12-month basis.

Mike Fratantoni, Chief Economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, emphasized the broader implications of these figures, stating , "Beyond this headline, other aspects of the data indicate a slowing job market. Temporary hires decreased significantly, suggesting a decrease in business demand for labor."

Shifting Trends in Apartment Occupancy

According to recent data, 47% of U.S. apartments completed in the fourth quarter were rented within three months, down from 60% a year earlier. This indicates a slowdown in the pace of leasing for newly constructed units.

Increased Apartment Supply

The market is seeing a surge in new apartment completions, with more units hitting the market than normal. This increased supply is creating a competitive environment for building owners, who are now vying for tenants and finding it more challenging to significantly raise rental prices.

Rent Trends Across Unit Types

The data reveals a divergence in rental price movements across different apartment sizes:

• Studios and one-bedroom units have experienced sizable rent declines, as the surge in supply has outpaced demand for these smaller unit types.

• In contrast, larger three-plus-bedroom units, which remain in high demand, have continued to see rent hikes.

These shifting trends underscore the dynamic nature of the rental market and the importance for both renters and property owners to stay informed on the latest developments.

Lessons From Ryan Serhant’s New Netflix Show

Find Your Fire

As we step into the third quarter of 2024, it's crucial for professionals to reflect on their core motivations. Whether it's financial freedom, career growth, or leaving a legacy , understanding your "why" can significantly influence your career trajectory and personal fulfillment.

Bet on Yourself

The path to success is often paved with risks. Serhant's willingness to invest in himself and his vision, without a fallback plan, underscores the importance of commitment and resilience in achieving one's goals.

Real Estate is About Selling

Success in real estate requires more than just knowledge of the market; it demands exceptional sales skills and the ability to perform under pressure. This is evident when Serhant discusses pricing strategies with top agent Kayla Lee for a $250 million property, showcasing his adeptness in handling tough negotiations.

Top Producers Put in the Hours

While the work-life balance is essential, dedication and hard work are non-negotiable for those aiming at the top. The commitment shown by SERHANT. agents, who work upwards of 85 hours a week, illustrates the level of effort needed to achieve significant results.

Resilience is Necessary

In real estate, as in life, setbacks are inevitable. The ability to bounce back and use these experiences as stepping stones towards success is what distinguishes the best in the business.

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The Hobbit House

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TL;DR (Too Long; Didn’t Read)

Recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows a slowdown in job growth, with revisions indicating 111,000 fewer jobs added in April and May, and June's job additions slightly boosted by government hiring. This slowdown is impacting mortgage rates, which have begun to decline after a spike following the June 27 presidential debate. Additionally, the rental market is experiencing a surge in new apartment completions, leading to competitive conditions and varying rent trends, with smaller units seeing rent declines while larger units remain in high demand. Meanwhile, Ryan Serhant's new Netflix show highlights the importance of motivation, resilience, and hard work for success in the real estate industry.

Have a great weekend - we’ll see you next Saturday.

Cheers 🍻

-Market Minds Team